The results of the Iowa caucus are in.On the Democrat side we have Obama the winner with 38% followed by Edwards with 30% and Clinton with 29%. On the Republican side, Huckabee is ahead with 34%, Romney with 25% and a tie for third between Thompson and McCain with 13% each.Contrary to what some in the media would have us believe, the election is far from over.It's unlikely that come November the candidates will be Obama and Huckabee.
Let's take a look at past results. As far as the Democrats are concerned,with the exception of a sitting President (Clinton in 1996) no Democrat winner of the Iowa caucus has won the November election since Carter won in 1976 (and he actually came in 2nd in Iowa to "uncommitted").
The Republicans don't fare much better. A sitting President does OK, but otherwise, the Republican winner in Iowa usually loses the general election. (George W. Bush in 2000 is a notable exception).
I predicted Huckabee and Romney would take the 1st and 2nd place spots, though I couldn't predict who would come out ahead. I also said that a win in Iowa will not stop Huckabee's slide downward. He won't be able to rely solely on evangelicals to carry him. He's pretty much a RINO - basically, a pro life Democrat.
I will be very surprised if Obama wins the Democrat nomination.
Iowa is just the first of many contests. As the saying goes,
"It ain't over 'til the fat lady sings" and the fat lady doesn't sing in Des Moines.
